Thursday, December 06, 2007

Religion is a bad bet

Or more specifically it's bad as your only bet.

And the use of the word "bet" is deliberate: to gamble is to surrender the outcome to chance, to enter a position where your influence over the outcome is minimal, or perhaps absent. Betting that your understanding of God is correct is precisely that: you have no assurances that you are correct. You have abdicated your control over outcomes, and you have no contingency if you are wrong.

Science, like religion, is also based on belief. In the case of science, the belief is in a sufficient consistency to the universe such that knowledge of those consistencies can enable us to influence outcomes to suit our own purposes. The difference between the bet on science and the bet on religion is that--although not perfect--science does have a record of delivering expected outcomes.

Which would you prefer, ignoring for a moment specific outcomes: the bet with some guarantee of winning, or the bet with no discernible track record?